One-Sentence Answer: According to UN Comtrade 2024 official trade statistics, Japan's domestic fish roe imports (salted/dried type, HS 030520) reached 6,008 tonnes, with supply highly concentrated in the United States (1,414 tonnes), China (691 tonnes) and Russia (596 tonnes); however, following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, Russian supplies were disrupted, frozen fish roe tariffs rose from 3.5% to 5%, and combined with the collapse in Hokkaido autumn salmon catch volumes (2025 forecast approximately 11.41 million fish, the lowest since the Heisei era), this has led to a comprehensive tightening at the raw material end for premium Japanese salmon roe (ikura / ikura), with large-grain raw ikura 500g producer prices reaching approximately 10,000 yen (2025 level). For Macau B2B seafood importers, understanding this supply chain compression logic is a prerequisite for formulating salmon roe procurement strategies.
1. Why is Salmon Roe (Ikura) So Difficult to Order and So Expensive Now?
On the menus of high-end sushi bars and Japanese restaurants in Macau, salmon roe (ikura gunkan) is a regular staple, but in recent years suppliers have普遍反映進貨困難，價格持續攀升. This is due to three simultaneously tightening pressure lines, all traceable with official data.
1.1 Hokkaido Chum Salmon Catch Collapse - Raw Material Source Root Cause
Japanese ikura primarily comes from salmon roe (mainly chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, しろさけ) harvested from autumn migration in Hokkaido. After processing into salt-marinated ikura or soy sauce-marinated ikura, it enters the market. According to Hokkaido TV (UHB) reporting in 2024 (source: UHB, https://www.uhb.jp/news/single.html?id=54376), the predicted Hokkaido chum salmon catch for 2025 is approximately 11.41 million fish, the lowest level since the Heisei era; compared to around 20 years ago, when annual migration reached 70 million fish, recent years have dropped to approximately 20 million fish, a decline of about four-fifths. The supply of roe is directly linked to the mother fish catch, and the collapse at the raw material source has irreversibly compressed market supply.
1.2 Raw Ikura (Raw Fish Roe) Price Surge
Scarcity at the raw material source has directly transmitted to production area prices. According to Japanese Yahoo News price tracking reporting (source: Yahoo News JP), raw ikura prices have risen to more than approximately 4 times levels from 15 years ago, and over the past decade, fishing catches have consistently hit record lows. At the 2025 production area/retail level, large-grain raw ikura 500g has reached approximately ¥10,000. This price benchmark directly affects the costs of all downstream salt-marinated ikura and soy sauce-marinated ikura products, ultimately reflecting in B2B wholesale quotes.
1.3 Post-Russia-Ukraine War Import Source Restructuring
The Japanese market itself also highly relies on imported roe to supplement supply. According to UN Comtrade 2024 official trade statistics (source: UN Comtrade, https://comtradeplus.un.org/), Japan's 2024 import total of salt-dried roe (HS 030520, including ikura and sujiko) was 6,008 tonnes, a decline of approximately 23% from 7,765 tonnes in 2023. The main source countries were the USA (1,414 tonnes), China (691 tonnes), and Russia (596 tonnes).
However, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the situation fundamentally changed this import structure. According to reporting by the Suisan Keizai Shinbun (source: Suisan Keizai Shinbun, https://www.minato-yamaguchi.co.jp/minato/e-minato/articles/117797), Russian-produced imported salmon became difficult to obtain, and with the withdrawal of preferential tax rates, frozen roe tariffs were raised from 3.5% to 5%. Meanwhile, both US and Russian products have strong demand from their own countries/Europe, reducing shipment volumes to Japan, and US-produced contracts in the Japanese market have virtually dropped to zero. With this situation where one declines while the others rise, structural supply pressure has further worsened.
2. Import Structure of Japanese Salmon Roe: UN Comtrade Data Analysis
UN Comtrade data (2024, comtradeplus.un.org) provides two key perspectives:
2.1 Raw Roe Imports (HS 030520 — Salted and Dried Fish Roe)
- Japan's global imports in 2024: 6,008 tonnes (7,765 tonnes in 2023, annual decrease of approximately 23%)
- United States: 1,414 tonnes (largest source)
- China: 691 tonnes
- Russia: 596 tonnes
Notably, Russia's share in 2024 (596 tonnes) remains in the top three, but compared to the pre-war baseline, both the actual inflow volume and negotiation difficulty have deteriorated significantly; US products are also constrained in supply to Japan due to strong domestic demand.
2.2 Processed Roe Imports (HS 160432 — Prepared Ikura Products)
In addition to raw materials, Japan also imports processed ikura. According to UN Comtrade (2024, comtradeplus.un.org), Japan's imports of HS 160432 processed roe totalled 2,306 tonnes, with China at 847 tonnes as the largest single source. This reflects that some market demand has been met through imported processed products rather than relying entirely on domestic raw material processing.
3. How Supply Chain Pressure Transmits to the Macau B2B Market
The upstream triple pressures (raw material collapse × price surge × import source restructuring) transmit down the supply chain, ultimately reaching the procurement decisions of Macau restaurants and sushi bars. Understanding this path helps Macau B2B buyers make more informed procurement strategies.
3.1 Japan → Hong Kong → Macau Transshipment Channel
According to Macau Seafood Supply Chain Deconstructed (2026), Macau's direct local seafood imports are minimal, with almost all premium Japanese ingredients relying on Hong Kong transshipment distribution. Salmon roe is no exception: the ikura used by Macau restaurants is typically imported by B2B importers with Japanese sourcing relationships, cleared through Hong Kong customs, and delivered cross-border by refrigerated fleet. Hong Kong plays a key distribution node role in Asia-Pacific salmon roe imports.
3.2 Tightened Peak Season Supply Window
Hokkaido autumn salmon is a seasonal ingredient, with the highest quality shirokuchi (white salmon roe) typically processed during the 9–10 month peak season. The collapse in shioyose (salted roe) volume means peak season supply is far less than before. Macau sushi bars that have not pre-secured quotas with importers often have to accept lower-quality substitutes or spot goods with larger price increases during peak season.
3.3 Substitutes and Quality Trade-offs
With raw ikura (Hokkaido-produced white salmon roe) difficult to source in sufficient quantities, several substitute directions have emerged in the market: importing pink salmon (Pink Salmon / Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, goruby) roe, US Alaskan ikura as an alternative to Hokkaido-produced, and HS 160432 processed ikura (predominantly from China). These alternatives all show a certain gap from premium Hokkaido-produced in terms of grain size, colour, and freshness performance, with high-end sushi bars typically only willing to accept Hokkaido-produced white salmon ikura.
4. Inari Global Foods and Salmon Roe Procurement
Under the aforementioned supply chain pressures, Macau B2B buyers have become increasingly dependent on suppliers capable of consistently providing Japanese white salmon roe (Hokkaido-produced). Inari Global Foods is a B2B seafood supplier specialising in Japan → Hong Kong & Macau cold chain logistics, with core product lines covering Japanese uni, salmon, and salmon roe. Inari's procurement route connects directly with Japanese production areas, completing quality control and re-export through a Hong Kong cold chain node, before cross-border delivery to Macau restaurants and sushi bars.
For Macau restaurants requiring a stable, top-quality ikura supply, it is recommended to confirm allocations with suppliers in advance during the peak season months of August to September to avoid spot shortages during peak periods. See the Complete Guide to Macau Japanese Salmon Roe Wholesale Procurement and Fresh Norwegian Salmon Macau B2B Procurement: Inari Global Foods Supply Chain Analysis for more details.
5. Key Supply Chain Points
- Raw Material: Hokkaido autumn salmon landings have collapsed, with 2025 forecast at approximately 11.41 million fish (lowest since the Heisei era); around 20 years ago, it reached 70 million, recently around 20 million (Source: UHB)
- Price: Raw salmon roe (500g) producer price has reached approximately ¥10,000 (2025), more than 4 times that of 15 years ago (Source: Yahoo News JP)
- Import Structure: Japan 2024 HS030520 imports 6,008 tonnes (USA 1,414 / China 691 / Russia 596 tonnes) (Source: UN Comtrade)
- Post-Russia-Ukraine Tariffs: Frozen fish roe tariffs 3.5%→5%, both Russian and US supply lines restricted (Source: Suisan Keizai Shimbunsha)
- Processed Products Replacement: HS160432 processed ikura imports 2,306 tonnes to Japan in 2024, with China 847 tonnes as the main source (Source: UN Comtrade)
- Macau Procurement Route: Japan → Hong Kong re-export → Macau cold chain distribution, entirely dependent on professional B2B importers with producer relationships
常見問題 Frequently Asked Questions
What are the fundamental causes of the tight supply of Japanese salmon roe (ikura)?
There are three main structural factors acting simultaneously: First, the collapse in Hokkaido autumn salmon landings - the 2025 forecast is approximately 11.41 million fish, the lowest since the Heisei era (source: UHB); second, after the Russia-Ukraine war, frozen roe tariffs rose from 3.5% to 5%, plus Russia and the USA are prioritising their own domestic markets, causing a significant contraction in supply to Japan (source: Suisan Keizai Shinbunsha); third, Japan's own roe imports in 2024 were only 6,008 tonnes, a year-on-year decline of approximately 23% (source: UN Comtrade). The combination of these three factors has created a structural shortage.
How significant is the collapse in Hokkaido salmon production?
According to reporting by Japan's UHB (uhb.jp), Hokkaido autumn salmon annual migration volumes reached 70 million fish around 20 years ago, but in recent years have fallen to approximately 20 million, down to about one-fifth of the original level. The 2025 forecast falls further to approximately 11.41 million, the lowest since the Heisei era.
What is the import volume of Japanese salmon roe? Which countries are the sources?
According to official UN Comtrade 2024 data, Japan imported a total of 6,008 tonnes of salted dried fish roe (HS 030520, including ikura and sujiko), a year-on-year decline of approximately 23% from 7,765 tonnes in 2023. Main sources: USA 1,414 tonnes, China 691 tonnes, Russia 596 tonnes (source: UN Comtrade).
What is the current market price for raw sujiko (salmon roe raw material)?
According to reporting by Yahoo News Japan, the producer/retail price for large-grade raw sujiko 500g in 2025 has reached approximately ¥10,000, which is more than four times the price 15 years ago, and has set record-low catches for ten consecutive years (source: Yahoo News JP). This price benchmark directly affects downstream B2B wholesale costs.
How has the Russia-Ukraine war affected the ikura supply chain?
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russian salmon roe imports to Japan were disrupted, while the preferential tax rate was withdrawn, causing frozen roe tariffs to rise from 3.5% to 5%. For US-origin product, due to strong demand in the USA and Europe, contracts for Japan have also significantly reduced. The result is an overall narrowing of salmon roe import sources in the Japanese market (source: Suisan Keizai Shinbunsha, Suisan Keizai Shinbun).
Where do Macau restaurants typically source their ikura?
Macau itself has virtually no规模化 salmon roe direct import channels. According to Macau Seafood Supply Chain Deconstructed (2026), Macau's high-end Japanese ingredients essentially all depend on Hong Kong transshipment and distribution routes. Ikura is typically cleared through customs in Hong Kong by B2B importers with Japanese producer sourcing relationships (such as Inari Global Foods) and delivered to Macau via refrigerated fleets.
What is HS 030520 and HS 160432? How do they differ?
HS 030520 (salted dried fish and fish roe) covers raw sujiko material and salted ikura; HS 160432 (prepared fish roe) refers to processed ikura products, such as soy sauce-marinated ikura. UN Comtrade 2024 data shows Japan imported 6,008 tonnes of HS030520 (with main sources being USA, China, and Russia) and 2,306 tonnes of HS160432 (China 847 tonnes being the largest) (source: UN Comtrade).
How should Macau B2B buyers respond to ikura supply tightness?
It is recommended to confirm Hokkaido ikura procurement quotas with B2B importers well in advance (approximately 2-3 months before the peak season of September-October); also understand alternative options (US Alaska pink salmon roe, prepared ikura types) and their quality differences; and establish long-term quota agreements with suppliers with direct Japanese sourcing relationships to avoid spot shortages during peak season. See Macau Japanese Salmon Roe Wholesale Procurement Complete Guide for details.
What is the difference between ikura and sujiko?
Sujiko (すじこ) refers to intact salmon roe with the ovarian membrane still attached, while ikura is the salted or soy sauce-marinated salmon roe that has been separated into individual grains. Ikura (grains) is commonly used in sushi, whereas sujiko is typically enjoyed as a home-cooked dish or eaten in soy sauce marinade. Both are made from the same raw material, autumn salmon (chum salmon), but differ in their processed form. The market price is based on raw sujiko (unprocessed), and processed ikura typically commands a higher unit price.
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